讲座题目：Does US Financial Uncertainty Spill Over through the (Asymmetric) International Credit Channel? The Role of Market Expectations

时间：2024年5月22日上午10:30-12:00

地点：博学925

主讲人：黄宇凡

主讲人简介：黄宇凡，首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院副教授，博士生导师，2013年获得华盛顿大学的经济学博士学位。着重研究实证宏观经济学、非线性时间序列和贝叶斯方法，研究成果刊登在Journal of Money, Credit & Banking，Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，International Journal of Forecasting，International Review of Economics & Finance，和Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics等国际著名期刊。主持国家青年基金青年项目及面上项目。

讲座内容简介：We show that the international credit channel is an important channel through which US financial uncertainty spills over internationally. Moreover, we find the asymmetric responses of domestic and international credit conditions to US financial uncertainty shocks, contingent upon market participants’ expectations. During periods of pessimism regarding future economic conditions, the impact of US financial uncertainty on both domestic and international credit conditions intensifies significantly, leading to a severe global economic slowdown. Elevated US financial uncertainty disproportionately affects the left tails of the distribution more than the right tails, heightening the likelihood of negative global output growth. Conversely, in times of optimism, heightened US financial uncertainty exerts modest effects on international credit conditions and global economic conditions. Yet it stretches the conditional distribution substantially, signaling an increasingly uncertain future.