学术讲座：Eclipse, Confucianism and Revolution: An Investigation into Coordination of Rebellions in Qing China

金融学院SBF论坛2019年第29讲

讲座题目：Eclipse, Confucianism and Revolution: An Investigation into Coordination of Rebellions in Qing China

时间：2019年10月24日（周四）12:20-13:30

地点：博学楼925

主讲人：苗萌

主讲人简介：苗萌，目前为止中国人民大学汉青研究院助理教授，他2015年从英国牛津赛义得商学院毕业。他目前从事的研究领域主要为公司财务，量化历史，他所感兴趣的题目包括产权，破产法，地方债务，中央地方关系等。

讲座内容简介：Coordination of large-scale action among revolutionaries, a feat necessary to overthrow a despot, is a difficult thing to get right. Historically, there was an ingenious solution. It was to use solar eclipses. These astronomical events were seen by observers over vast stretches of land, and were interpreted by Confucians as a sign of heavenly mandate for action. Auspicious understanding of eclipses was already established popularly in the matter of China’s Keju civil service examinations. We show that in counties where eclipses were observed, there was a higher than usual likelihood that populations would engage in political revolt. In testing, and rejecting, a number of explanations, we suggest that coordinated revolutions were mostly likely a result of accumulated grievances of local populations against the government, that governments in regions that were under more revolutionary pressure were also found to have conceded and implemented more benevolent policies in the short term, and that this revolutionary and conciliatory effect disappears within three years of the eclipse.