讲座题目：Misforecasting Earnings: Management Expectations and Capital Market Anomalies

讲座时间：2023年4月10日 12点20-13：20

讲座地点：博学楼925

主讲人：周德馨现任纽约市立大学巴鲁克学院经济与金融系副教授。他的主要研究领域为媒体，社交网络，以及机构投资者在金融市场中的作用。他的研究成果曾发表于国际顶级金融和会计学期刊，包括Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies以及 Accounting Review，并被《华尔街日报》，《经济学人》，《金融时报》，以及《哈佛法学院公司治理论坛》等国际知名媒体引用。他于巴德学院获得数学学士学位，并从艾默里大学获得金融学博士学位。

主讲人学术观点：研究兴趣为行为金融学，了解投资者行为偏差对投资资产组合以及资产价格的影响。

讲座简介：We investigate whether management earnings forecasts reflect the biases captured by anomaly signals and subsequent implications for capital market efficiency. We discover that management earnings forecasts are more pessimistic for stocks that are undervalued based on anomaly signals, suggesting anomaly signals capture biases in managers' forecasts. Furthermore, the biases in management forecasts are more severe than those in analyst forecasts. The findings are stronger when managers are overconfident and when they make long-term forecasts, and during high sentiment periods, but not influenced by the trading activities of insiders or firms. This suggests that behavioral issues, rather than strategic manipulation, drive the biases in management forecasts. Moreover, the biases in management forecasts are predominantly captured by underreaction and short-term anomalies. Finally, anomaly returns are significantly amplified and prolonged when managers issue forecasts that are inconsistent with the anomaly signals, suggesting these forecasts exacerbate the errors in investor expectation of future cash flowing.