学术讲座：Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

金融学院SBF论坛2019年第9讲

讲座题目：Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

时间：4月25日 12：20-13：30

地点：博学楼918

主讲人：赵波

主讲人简介：

赵波，北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授，博士生导师。本科和硕士毕业于复旦大学，博士毕业于挪威奥斯陆大学。主要研究领域为宏观经济学，劳动经济学和房地产经济学。他的研究成果发表于Review of Economic Dynamics，Economic Theory, Economic Letters等期刊。曾于美联储明尼苏达研究部、明尼苏达大学和澳大利亚莫纳什大学任访问学者。

讲座内容简介：

We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP. During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases in agriculture more than in other sectors. We construct a unified theory of business cycles and structural change consistent with the stylized facts. The focal point of the theory is the simultaneous decline and modernization of agriculture. As capital accumulates, agriculture becomes increasingly capital intensive as modern agriculture crowds out traditional agriculture. Structural change accelerates in booms and slows down in recessions. We estimate the model and show that it accounts well for both the structural transformation and the business cycle fluctuations of China.

本文通过大量数据表明商业周期的性质是在经济增长和结构变迁过程中演变的。农业部门占比大的国家，其总就业与国内生产总值相关性接近于零。在经济高涨时期，农业就业下降，而农业的劳动生产率增长超过其他部门。我们构建了一个同时包含商业周期和结构变迁的理论来解释这些事实。这一理论的重点是农业部门的下降和现代化。随着资本的积累，现代农业挤出了传统农业，农业变得日益资本密集型。结构变迁在繁荣期加速，在衰退期减缓。我们对模型进行了估计，结果表明该模型能够很好地反映中国经济结构转型和经济周期波动。