讲座题目：Overreaction Through Anchoring

讲座时间：2023年3月14日（星期二） 中午12:20-13:20

讲座方式：博学楼925

主讲人：

CONSTANTIN BURGI博士现任都柏林大学助理教授。他于美国乔治华盛顿大学（The George Washington University）获经济学博士学位。CONSTANTIN BURGI博士的研究方向包括宏观经济学、计量经济学、货币政策以及国际金融，研究成果发表于Scientometrics、Economic Modelling、Applied Economics Letters、Economics Letters、Empirical Economics等期刊。

讲座简介：

We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to systematic decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency and a lack of overreaction at the annual frequency. We explain these facts with a model of annual anchoring in which quarterly predictions must be consistent with annual predictions. We estimate our model to fit survey expectations and show that it provides a unified explanation for our empirical facts. Furthermore, our model yields frequency-specific estimates of information frictions which imply a larger role for inattention at the annual frequency.