文章标题：Political Relations and the Belt and Road Financial Cooperation

发表期刊：Applied Economics

发表时间：2023.10

刊次：2023.10

摘要：

This study attempts to investigate the influence of political relations on the depth of BRI financial cooperation. This research first theoretically explains the unique impact of political relations on the development of financial cooperation using a network evolutionary gaming analysis. Then through the Generalized Least Square (GLS) and Propensity Score Method (PSM) model, this paper empirically shows that political relations can influence the establishment of financial cooperation after accounting for the possible endogenous effect. In addition, the countries more politically intimate with China than the U.S. are more likely to form financial cooperation with China. The results are robust with respect to the choice of different models, including Heckman two-steps method of treatment effects model, and long term OLS model. This study provides insights for the future of the multi-currency international monetary system, as a contrast to the U.S. dollar dominated international monetary system.

本文主要研究双边政治关系对中国“一带一路”金融合作水平的影响。首先利用网络演化博弈的分析方法，理论研究政治关系在金融合作网络扩张中的影响，说明政治关系产生影响的根源是国际货币竞争。再结合联合国大会投票数据作为双边政治距离变量，运用Heckman两步法论证了政治关系距离会对“一带一”金融合作水平造成影响，政治关系距离越远的国家越难与中国建立金融合作，也越难进一步深化金融合作。中国应积极推动金融合作模式的多边化，以良好的政治够通带动金融合作，并优先与政治关系较好的国家进行金融合作水平的深化。

关键词：Political intimacy; belt and Road Initiative; financial cooperation; network evolutionary gaming

博士生简介：

张向颖，对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院2019级博士生